Still busy since the month of July, the slight increase in the number of housing loans remained in September according to the Credit housing-CSA barometer. Confirmation of a trend of the previous edition of the barometer. In three months resumed the rates (with the exception of insurance and cost of security rights) 14 basis points (0.14%), to 3.04% on average at the end of September. "Credit conditions remain excellent, Michel Mouillart, Professor at the University Paris Ouest nuance. '' This increase, leaving rates at a very low level, is not likely to rise to concern about the future of the market.?»
However, this average hides large differences-from simple to double-between lending conditions depending on the quality of the record of the borrower if the private contribution rate and repayment capacity. So, the practical average can down lowest, for best profiles, 2.06% in variable rate on 15-year-old and the highest for the less good, 4.99% fixed interest rate over 25 years.
By the end of the year, average rates up to 3.15 percent could still further. "This increase will not oppose the request, tempers Michel Mouillart, because those that are on the market today less sensitive to the difference smaller, younger borrowers and without that are getting squeezed out."
Indeed, despite still attractive credit conditions, aging and borrowers gentrification accelerates. The age of 35 represent more than 47% of the market. They were still 52% in 2008-2009. The next item: since the summer 2011, the effect of the decline in economic activity and the evolution of the zero rate loan improved (PTZ +), fit in the nine and disappeared in the former.
This transformation is done mainly for the benefit of more than 45 years. The market moves so much faster in favor of older and more affluent that shrinks the volume of activity at the same time.
The phenomenon is even more pronounced with respect to the level of household income borrowers. The traffic was on the market of the former from early 2012 for less than 3 SMIC sensitive. In the new, the trend is going well since the beginning of the year. Youth and poorest, that are also less endowed in capital, as a result of the deletion of the admission ticket that represented the PTZ +, no longer come on the market. «The market is very selective, emphasizes Michel Mouillart.» It is a market of household advanced in life, the personal contribution is high. The part of the workers and employees. Executives and professionals back.?»
Under these conditions the average duration of loans fell again in the 3rd quarter of 2013. At the end of September, she moved to 206 months on average, a level similar to the year 2006. So far, loans over a period of not more than 25 years, disappeared from the market. They represent even more than 19% of production.
Despite the withdrawal of the poorest households is the personal contribution in sharp decline. In the former, personal delivery rate fall by 11% since early 2013, at the end of September, after an increase of 5.2% in 2012. Three reasons for this fall: the context of the economic crisis that the Constitution of a contribution, the cheap credit that it makes less necessary and blocking the resale market more difficult.
The beginning of ascent rate is currently no obstacle to the resumption of the activity. Falling sensitive last year (-26.4%), real estate credit market activity, with the exception of renegotiations, recovering. "The market of the former trying to start even if one is to find a lot of 2011 activities levels. The trough of the recession of the market is behind us, "said Michel Mouillart.
The production of credits increased 21.7% at the end of September (in smooth year). The recovery is more pronounced in the old and the new (+ 28.2% in the former and + 14% in the nine). Thanks to the significant drop in personal contributions mobilized and so appealing to the more intense credit, all markets, increase the number of bank loans: + 10.4% at the end of September (in smooth year).
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